Technology Predictions

By  Lori Castle, Editor in Chief — December 24, 2013

It’s that time of year. Everyone is looking ahead to what the technological landscape will look like in 2014 and beyond. Here’s a compilation around the CIO role, spending, mobility and security.

The Role of the CIO
IDC follows market trends and provides forecasts throughout the year, but wraps it up with a full outlook. According to the company, while the “3rd Platform” (of mobile, social, big data, and cloud services) is just beginning to mature, it will require an entirely different set of IT skills and roles — many of which are yet to be invented.

Fred Magee, adjunct research advisor with IDC’s Research Network, said, "We believe there are clear indicators that the existing role of technology management will evolve in a few short years to a set of roles that includes management of innovation, information intelligence, customer experience, and digital business presence. It's going to be an exciting decade."

So what does this in the nearer term? Here are the top 10 predictions for the CIO.

  1. In two years, over 70% of CIOs will change their primary role from directly managing IT to become an innovation partner.
  2. Before 2017, only 40% of CIOs will rise to produce business enhancing insights from big data and analytics.
  3. 70% of CIOs will increase enterprise exposure to risk to accelerate business agility through increased cloud adoption.
  4. Enterprise business mobility will require 60% of CIOs by 2017 to support an agile architecture with next-generation mobile applications.
  5. The demographic shift to young and mobile customers will require 80% of CIOs in consumer-facing businesses to integrate IT with public social networks by 2015.
  6. By 2015, 3rd Platform requirements will drive 60% of CIOs to use enterprise architecture (EA) as a required IT tool, but only 40% will deploy EA effectively.
  7. By 2015, 60% of CIO security budgets for increasingly vulnerable legacy systems will be 30-40% too small to fund enterprise threat assessments.
  8. By 2017, the transfer of 3rd Platform investments from IT to line-of-business budgets will require 60% of CIOs to focus the IT budget on business innovation and value
  9. By 2016, 80% of the IT budget will be based on providing broad portfolio of IT and business services
  10. By 2018, adoption of 3rd Platform IT technologies will redefine 90% of IT roles.
IDC sees worldwide IT spending growing 5% year over year to $2.1 trillion in 2014. This is also driven by 3rd Platform technologies, which are predicted to grow 15% year over year, and capture 89% of IT spending growth.

Sales of smartphones and tablets will continue at a rapid pace while outlays for servers, storage, networks, software, and services will fare better than in 2013. The PC market will remain under stress, with worldwide revenues down  — 6% year over year.

Mobile is Everything
Drilling down to more on mobile— “it’s everything,” according to Anthony Reynolds, Senior Vice President, WW Sales and Solutions, SAP. He outlines five things to come.

1. Mobile is no longer an option, it’s everything.  As we close 2013, more technology vendors are recognizing that the strength of this app-based economy lies in the enterprise. Once considered the sweet spot for Angry Birds, developers have shifted focus to creating enterprise-grade mobile apps covering every possible mobile platform; and in 2014, we’ll see that development continue to increase as developers take advantage of newly introduced, streamlined tools that help create and deploy the same mobile application across multiple different platforms.

2. Fragmentation continues. Apple is on course to set more records with the introduction of the 5s, while Samsung continues to pull away as the overall smartphone leader. And even Windows phones are catching on with the Lumia being treated to an aggressive advertising push. With increasing variety and features being offered, companies are no longer able to force a device on employees and expect them to be happy. In 2014, we’ll see an increasing fragmentation in the mobile market and a scramble from companies looking for ways to manage devices of all types and operating systems.

3.  BYOD is the new normal; BYOx takes off.  For years, we’ve talked about employees bringing their own phones, but now it’s about so much more. Employees are bringing  tablets and apps, and there’s not much that IT can do about it. In 2014, companies will look beyond devices and toward a more comprehensive strategy for managing the security of company data and content while appeasing employee demand for flexibility. It’s about what’s inside that device and in the cloud that truly counts.

4.   Bridging the CIO/CMO divide: If you believe the headlines toward the back half of 2013, you’d think the IT department was obsolete. Seeking greater agility and faster response times, the CMO has taken control of a bigger piece of the IT budget and companies are playing to that trend, offering solutions that “bypass IT” but still provide security. In 2014, the struggle between the CIO and CMO will still be alive and well, but we’ll see these C-level executives begin to work more closely as IT recognizes it needs to open itself up to mobile solutions and cloud computing and the CMO realizes that strict security practices simply can’t be enforced without the help of the IT department.

5. The Internet of Things (IoT) takes shape and brings a lot of issues.  As more companies clue into the possibilities of connecting even the most mundane technology to the Internet, the reality of these millions of new endpoints hitting networks is setting in. 2014 will see the IoT viewed with a more critical eye, both toward security and the possibilities these new devices and things bring to companies. And the IoT will finally move from a consumer-oriented — and largely fictitious — idea toward a real-life concept that businesses use to solve issues like remote service management or preventative maintenance.

Security Breaches
Both IDC and SAP mention security issues, with the former saying there won’t be enough budget to protect the enterprise and the latter citing risk from BYOx. Trend Micro, released its forecast on cyber security and mobile stands to be the delivery vehicle for threats.

Individuals, businesses and governments will be impacted as Raimund Genes, CTO, Trend Micro, says that “2014 promises to be a prolific year for cybercrime.”

The report, “Blurring Boundaries: Trend Micro Security Predictions for 2014 and Beyond,” hones in on these top 8 concerns:
  1. Mobile banking will suffer from more MitM attacks; basic two-step verification will no longer be sufficient.
  2. Cybercriminals will increasingly use targeted-attack-type methodologies like open source research and highly customized spear phishing, along with multiple exploits.
  3. In the context of targeted attacks, we will see more clickjacking and watering hole attacks, new exploits of choice and attacks via mobile devices.
  4. We will see one major data breach incident a month.
  5. Attacks leveraging vulnerabilities in widely used but unsupported software like Java 6 and Windows XP will intensify.
  6. The Deep Web will significantly challenge law enforcement, as the latter struggles to build capacity in order to address cybercrime on a large scale.
  7. Public distrust will ensue, especially after the exposure of state-sponsored monitoring activities, resulting in a period of disparate efforts to restore privacy.
  8. We will not yet see large-scale, widespread IoE threats. This requires a “killer app,” which may appear in the area of AR in the form of technology like heads-up displays.
No. 8 notwithstanding, the report says that the rise of the IoE will be a “proverbial game changer.”  Augmented reality will be delivered through wearable technology upping the possibility of “large-scale cybercrime.”

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